События
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20.10.2020, Для всех Алексей Громыко
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«На земном шаре около 200 стран, 93 из которых входят в структуру ООН, а потому надо осознавать, что на многие события, происходящие у нас за окном, накладываются как внутренние, так и внешние причины. Тезис о возобновлении соперничества великих держав продвинут на международной арене не Россией, Беларусью, Китаем или Германией, с этим лозунгом пришел к власти Дональд Трамп, и в новой национальной стратегии безопасности Америки тезис о возобновлении конкуренции крупных держав четко прописан. Хотя на мой взгляд, миру надо предлагать какие-то другие задачи, а не вбрасывать в общественную дискуссию идеи, которые ведут к нагнетанию напряженности и эскалации напряженности в отношениях между странами», - с этих слов начал встречу в Международном медиаклубе «Формат А-3» доктор политических наук, член-корреспондент РАН, директор Института стран Европы РАН Алексей Громыко. Тему ««Беларусь как арена геополитического противоборства» спикер и участники ЗУУМ-дискуссии рассматривали в контексте общемировых тенденций и стратегий, говорили о том, что в последние несколько лет ухудшаются отношения между Россией и Западом, между Китаем и США, а это накладывает свой отпечаток на все макрорегионы. «Недавно, особенно в связи с пандемией, в Латинской Америке, Азии, Африке и Европе наблюдались всплески социального и политического напряжения. Да и на постсоветском пространстве далеко не спокойно. Поэтому, чтобы анализировать происходящее и понимать, как решать собственные проблемы, надо бросить довольно широкий взгляд», — отметил спикер. С ним солидаризировался и директор Центра изучения внешней политики и безопасности Беларуси Денис Буконкин. Участники встречи спросили Алексея Анатольевича, прогнозировал ли он столь серьезный политический кризис в Беларуси после августа 2020-го. «Я предполагал, что оппоненты власти после выборов будут выступать более резко. Ведь в условиях пандемии накопилось немало социальных вопросов, проблем. Да и внешние игроки, было очевидно, попытаются воспользоваться этой ситуацией. Но я не ожидал такого масштаба протеста, не предвидел, что ситуация может так сильно раскуриться, — признался известный политолог. — Ведь сегодня она уже действует по собственной логике, которая расщепилась на логику нескольких интересов и власти, и оппозиции. Последняя представляет из себя достаточности рыхлое явление, где есть своя умеренная и радикальная части. Особенно осложнилось положение, когда большинство представителей радикальной оппозиции выехали за рубеж и когда Россия и Беларусь оказались втянутыми в ту самую геополитическую борьбу. Думаю, что это будет продолжаться еще достаточно длительное время». В процессе долгой содержательной дискуссии поговорили о многом: о мирном диалоге как выходе из белорусского тупика, о роли внешнего фактора в стабилизации белорусской ситуации, в влиянии коронавируса на экономику мира, о внутриполитическом кризисе, угрозе цветной революции и даже о новой политической конфигурации в Австрии и Германии. От одного из слушателей в чат пришло сообщение, в котором брестчанин изложил свой выход из тупика: «Я убежден, что нам необходима новая формула национального консенсуса, и вопрос о будущем страны может быть решен только на основании конституционного диалога. Иначе - гражданский конфликт и ослабление белорусского государства. А если в худшем варианте, то и ликвидация нашей страны как субъекта международного права». Слушатель поинтересовался, возможен ли диалог между людьми и политическими силами с совершенно полярными взглядами на идеологию, экономику, геополитические процессы. «Самое важное для любой страны - оставаться по возможности в правовом поле, — считает гость клуба. — Если же правовой нигилизм берет верх, то все выходит из-под контроля, и в результате проигрывают и оппозиция, и власть. Как совместить разные мнения? А в какой стране не существуют противоречащие друг другу взгляды? Возьмите Польшу, Францию, Германию, Великобританию... Я уж не говорю о США или Ближнем Востоке... Много стран, где идет речь не о том, чтобы политические или общественные силы искали компромиссы, но чтобы в политическом плане они уничтожали друг друга, и из политической системы делали не маятник, когда к власти приходят разные силы, а таран —для того, чтобы выторговать только себе определенные интересы и монопольно удерживать власть. А если где-либо столкновения выливаются в уличные беспорядки, это еще не значит, что в стране утерян контроль, что она может развалиться и быстро изменить свою стратегию. В тех же Соединенных Штатах Америки, которые глубоко расколоты политически, в течение нескольких лет фактически идет гражданская война. Столкновения происходят на улицах и площадях, десятки жертв, особенно в последние месяцы… Мне кажется, что в Беларуси, как, впрочем и в России, есть очень жесткое противостояние между определенными частями общества. По большому счету, в этом нет ничего страшного, надо сделать так, чтобы страна стала стрессоустойчивой, чтобы ее политическая система и общество могли аккумулировать эти шоки, не загоняя проблему в тупик, а раскрывая какой-то путь ее решения. Идеально, если в Беларуси конфликт будет разрешен не по указке власти, а с привлечением самых широких слоев населения. Последующие реформы, изменения, поправки в Конституции, может быть, даже переформатирование политического режима (из президентского в президентско-парламентскую республику) – главное, чтобы все это находилось в правовом поле и не приводило к угрозе столкновения внутри страны и, не дай бог, гражданскому конфликту. Дело ведь не в конкретных личностях, а в том, чтобы сохранить в целом спокойствие в стране, чтобы не пострадали наши стратегические отношения, чтобы любая трансформация власти происходила эволюционным путем, а не через и революций». По мнению модератора мероприятия, декана факультета философии и социальных наук БГУ Вадима Гигина, сегодня состоялась хорошая экспертная встреча и обмен мнениями. Да и вопросов прислали немало, причем на самые разные темы международной жизни. «Спасибо, кто был с нами. А мы постараемся, чтобы встречи в рамках «Формата А-3 были всегда интересными, насыщенными и, самое главное, без цензуры и без купюр. Это наш слоган», - заключил он. 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